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Prediction for CME (2022-10-01T13:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-10-01T13:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21824/-1
CME Note: Visible in the W in STEREO A COR2, partial halo W in SOHO LASCO C3. Overtakes previous narrow CME in coronagraph imagery. May be associated with large eruption from AR 13113 (N16W21), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2022-10-01T12:04Z. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS team: We can have a potential CME arrival at 2022-10-04T07:05Z. As you can see, we do have a smooth-like rotation in the Z-component of magnetic field. Also, in the same period, the ion density and temperature seem to decrease from higher levels. A potential end of this CME (flux rope) could be 2022-10-05T02:46Z. After this, you can see the components are too fluctuating (or noisy).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-10-04T07:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-04T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes from 2022-10-03T00:30Z Forecast Discussion:
Three CMEs from 01 Oct have been analyzed. The first CME was off the W limb at 01/1253 UTC in STEREO A COR2 imagery, and was associated with an approximate 22 degree long filament eruption centered near N15W14. The second and third CMEs were associated M-flare activity on 01 Oct and were observed off the NW limb in LASCO C2 imagery at 01/2036 UTC and 02/0236 UTC. Model output suggests the final CME overtaking the two earlier CMEs en route, and arriving at earth at around 04/0000 UTC.

Notes from 2022-10-02T12:30Z Forecast Discussion:
Preliminary modelling of the 01/1253 UTC
and 01/2036 UTC CMEs show the potential for a glancing blow late on 03 Oct to early 04 Oct, however confidence is low due to imagery gaps.

Lead Time: 23.08 hour(s)
Difference: 7.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-10-03T08:00Z

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